Energy Consumption and the Climate
Analyses issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicate that global energy consumption will continue to increase, and that it will be decades before this consumption may level off. IEA's analysis also points out that it will take considerable time before new sources of energy might replace today's most important energy carriers.

IEA's prognoses show that the global oil consumption will increase only insignificantly in the future. These findings are also corroborated by the market development. Today, global daily production amounts to approximately 90 million barrels. A short time ago, IEA's prognoses stated that global oil production would be 116 million barrels in 2030. This estimate has now been downgraded to 100 million barrels. Nevertheless, oil will constitute a dominant energy carrier for several decades to come.

In their most recent report, the IEA claims that the most efficient measure for reduction of emissions is to utilize the energy more effectively. In IEA's outlook for reversal of the trend for carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, 36 percent of the effect relates to energy efficiency measures.  The OECD maintains only one percent increased energy efficiency per year. According to IEA's trend reversal alternative, a two-percent efficiency improvement is required.

The total energy consumption is crucial with regard to emissions of greenhouse gases. Thus, it is the trend pertaining to total energy consumption that needs to be reversed  -at least insofar as alternative sources of energy, such as wind, solar, and wave energy, will offer only limited contributions to the energy supply until 2030. The world is still dependant upon relatively reasonably priced oil. A considerable reduction in oil production will result in even higher oil prices, primarily to the disadvantage of the poorest. In more affluent parts of the world, energy consumption per inhabitant can be reduced, and the price of energy increased, without adverse effects on prosperity or welfare. 

When the trend for global oil consumption is reversed, coal and nuclear power will meet the increased demand for power in the next decades. Coal will continue to be commercially available for several hundred years. It is primarily a strong growth in global coal consumption that will result in an increase of carbon dioxide emissions. To curb the growth of carbon dioxide emissions, it is pivotal that coal-fired power plants are fitted with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. IEA's recommendation, beyond proper management of emissions from coal-fired power plants, is large-scale development of nuclear power.

The Norwegian oil production has already peaked. Det norske will contribute to Norway achieving a stable oil production, approximately at or around the current level. We are of the opinion that this objective is a reasonable one, also with regard to environmental issues. It is not irrelevant where the oil is being produced. The Norwegian emissions per produced unit (standard cubic meter of oil equivalents) approximate 55 kilos (source: OLF Environmental Report 2007), whereas the average on a global basis amounts to 120 kilos (source: OGP 2006). Consequently, reduced production on the Norwegian Shelf could result in increased carbon dioxide emissions because it is being replaced by more energy-demanding production. With regard to geopolitics, it is also essential that a strategic resource such as oil be produced in areas characterized by political stability.

In Det norske, we are technology optimists. We believe in new technological solutions for carbon dioxide management, for increasing the efficiency of energy consumption, and for securing our energy future by means of new renewable sources of energy. We want measures aimed at securing more efficient use of energy to be implemented where this will achieve the maximum effect. Det norske emphasizes balance between energy sources. Accomplishing an expensive use of electricity from the national grid to supply the Norwegian Shelf would prove rather useless if the quantity of energy is removed from the European power market and most probably replaced elsewhere by coal-based energy.